I take no joy in pointing out the obvious: Trump and his technocrats are setting up the U.S. economy to fail, possibly leading to a recession—if not a full-blown depression. Trump, ever the egotist, doesn’t see it coming. Like the mafia friends who helped him bankrupt his casinos, he’s being used by smarter people to carry out something far more calculated.

Here’s the first reason they’re working so hard to seem insane: Thiel and Musk want the world’s reserve currency to be some form of cryptocurrency. Maybe it’s bitcoin. Maybe it’s a so-called sovereign currency issued by each government and instantly interchangeable across borders. Either way, the goal is to bypass the traditional system—no central banks, no SEC, no oversight. Money moves freely, without checks or balances.

Why tech went MAGA

John Biggs · Feb 7

Remember the Dot-Com boom? Optimistic young technologists rolling in free cash built an internet in their Gen X image, focusing on logistics and media. The generation that saw gas lines and shuttered local businesses built ways for people in small towns to shop like big city folks. Further, the progenitors of zines decided that media was broken and had …

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The easiest way to tank the dollar is through tariffs. Tariffs of this magnitude and with this theatrically are aimed at one thing: destabilizing our economy. Trump sees tariffs as a simple deal. He thinks that because France taxes U.S. imports, the U.S. should return the favor. In January 2025, France exported $51.2 billion to the U.S., while the U.S. exported $42.9 billion to France. That imbalance looks excessive at first glance, but much of what we import from France is high-value industrial equipment—gas turbines used in aviation, for example. Both countries trade expensive goods. France might sell us more wine than we sell them, and sure, their cheese is better. But is that trade deficit worth escalating into economic warfare?

Absolutely not. And it won’t take long before middle America realizes the Temu junk they’ve been buying now costs 100 times more, with no American-made alternative in sight. These tariffs are a distraction—a way to keep Trump and his base occupied while the real plan unfolds behind the scenes.

This isn’t overt conspiracy. It’s a long game. The goal is clear: the Silicon Valley right wants crypto to replace the dollar. Once the U.S. dollar becomes too volatile for international trade—when it can no longer be used reliably to buy gas turbines or petroleum—other countries will move to digital systems like Bitcoin, ChinaCoin, or KazakhCoin. These trades will be seamless. Running them will create massive arbitrage opportunities. They want to tear down the monetary system built over the last century and give each country—if that concept still exists—its own fluid, algorithmically managed currency. That shift opens every balance sheet to the world, replaces central banking with code, and makes taxation a mess.

There’s another reason Trump may want the economy to crash: interest rates.

Roughly $9.2 trillion in U.S. government debt will mature or need refinancing in 2025. That debt—mostly in bonds—needs to be rolled over. The only way to reduce borrowing costs before then is to push interest rates down. And historically, rate cuts follow recessions. Every U.S. recession since the 1980s has come after a peak in the federal funds rate. The Fed cuts rates to slow the bleeding.

In the past two months, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped about 60 basis points. That drop reflects rising recession fears. Many economists say the market is still in denial and should already be down 40 to 60 percent. Oil prices are down too—six-month lows. Trump has pushed for lower oil and lower rates, which raises the question: is this all just about lowering inflation and cutting borrowing costs, even if it means tanking the economy?

Meanwhile, inflation expectations among consumers keep rising—now projected around 6 percent. That usually leads to higher rates. But the bond market is still pricing in a recession. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast just collapsed from plus 3.9 percent to minus 2.8 percent in four weeks. That’s not a soft landing. That’s a stall.

The U.S. is carrying $36.2 trillion in debt, with an average interest rate of 3.2 percent—the highest since 2010. $9.2 trillion of that comes due in 2025. Seventy percent of it will hit between January and June. If rates stay where they are, refinancing costs will explode. The budget can’t handle that kind of spike.

In 2024, the U.S. spent $7.8 trillion but only brought in $5 trillion. That’s $1.56 spent for every dollar earned. Without lower rates, the math doesn’t work. A recession all but guarantees those rate cuts. Whether intentional or not, that seems to be the direction.

The one thing Trump can’t change by decree? Interest rates. So he’ll do what the business elite tells him to do—even if it costs him support.

Trump is a lame-duck president leading a lame-duck party. Once this all plays out, Republicans will be deeply distrusted for the next decade or more. Many of their hard-won prohibitions will be swept away by AOC-style lawmakers who will do what Democrats failed to do during the Biden years: enshrine human rights into the Constitution. That could take the form of abortion protections, equal rights for all, free healthcare, and possibly tuition-free education. But we’ll have to get through a lot of chaos before we get there—and most likely, some of that chaos will leave a mark.

I take no joy in pointing out the obvious: Trump and his technocrats are setting up the U.S. economy to fail, possibly leading to a recession—if not a full-blown depression. Trump, ever the egotist, doesn’t see it coming. Like the mafia friends who helped him bankrupt his casinos, he’s being used by smarter people to carry out something far more calculated.

Here’s the first reason they’re working so hard to seem insane: Thiel and Musk want the world’s reserve currency to be some form of cryptocurrency. Maybe it’s bitcoin. Maybe it’s a so-called sovereign currency issued by each government and instantly interchangeable across borders. Either way, the goal is to bypass the traditional system—no central banks, no SEC, no oversight. Money moves freely, without checks or balances.

Why tech went MAGA

John Biggs · Feb 7

Remember the Dot-Com boom? Optimistic young technologists rolling in free cash built an internet in their Gen X image, focusing on logistics and media. The generation that saw gas lines and shuttered local businesses built ways for people in small towns to shop like big city folks. Further, the progenitors of zines decided that media was broken and had …

Read full story

The easiest way to tank the dollar is through tariffs. Tariffs of this magnitude and with this theatrically are aimed at one thing: destabilizing our economy. Trump sees tariffs as a simple deal. He thinks that because France taxes U.S. imports, the U.S. should return the favor. In January 2025, France exported $51.2 billion to the U.S., while the U.S. exported $42.9 billion to France. That imbalance looks excessive at first glance, but much of what we import from France is high-value industrial equipment—gas turbines used in aviation, for example. Both countries trade expensive goods. France might sell us more wine than we sell them, and sure, their cheese is better. But is that trade deficit worth escalating into economic warfare?